Another Poll Shows Derek Tran Leads MAGA Michelle Steel

Sep

2024

PRESS RELEASE

Another Poll Shows Derek Tran Leads MAGA Michelle Steel

Recent Polls from Tulchin Research and the non-partisan USC-led public poll both show Tran surging ahead

Garden Grove, CA – A new poll released today by Tulchin Research shows Democrat Derek Tran surging past Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel in the race for California’s 45th Congressional District. Conducted between September 14th and 19th among likely voters in three languages (English, Spanish and Vietnamese), the poll gives Tran a 47% to 45% lead, showing him leading the race outright. This news lands just one day after an independent nonpartisan USC poll found Tran winning by the identical margin, confirming his campaign's growing momentum as voters respond to his compelling story and vision for the district. With Steel’s favorability ratings dropping due to concerns over her extreme efforts to ban abortion nationwide, and all three major political forecasters– Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball– moving this race in Tran’s favor, it's clear that Tran has the momentum and is well-positioned to flip this critical seat in November.

General Election Vote Over Time: Tran vs. Steel

To Read The Polling Memo Click Here

The Tulchin Research poll confirms what political insiders have been discovering: Tran, an Army veteran, workers’ rights attorney, and small business owner, is not just closing the gap—he’s pulling ahead, fueled by a coalition that cuts across key voter blocs in this battleground district. Most notably, Tran is now leading Steel among both Latino and Vietnamese voters, groups essential to winning in this diverse district that boasts the largest Vietnamese community in the country. Voters are increasingly rallying behind Tran’s compelling personal story and forward-looking agenda, as evidenced by a sharp rise in his recognition and favorability ratings. His name recognition has shot up 18 points since the summer, and his favorability rating has surged to +15, an 11-point improvement.

Meanwhile, Michelle Steel’s image has taken a significant hit as voters become more aware of her extreme anti-abortion stance, alignment with the most far-right elements of her party, and her deep ties to corruption scandals, including her long-standing support for disgraced Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, who is currently under FBI investigation for abusing taxpayer dollars.

-8 Points in the last three months

Voters who once gave Steel the benefit of the doubt are now reassessing their support. Her favorability has flipped, and her negative ratings have climbed, particularly among No Party Preference (NPP) voters—a critical swing group. In just a few months, Steel has seen a 26-point collapse in her job approval among these voters, a clear sign that her extreme politics is alienating these swing voters. This shift among NPP voters is not just a warning sign for the MAGA Congressmember—it’s a game changer. Tran, meanwhile, is winning NPPs over with his positive, solutions-oriented message that focuses on bringing jobs, opportunity, and pragmatic leadership to Washington.

Steel's favorability and job approval ratings over time among No Party Preference Voters

Job Approval ratings are way down for Steel: -26 points

With his ability to unite a diverse electorate and build a broad coalition, Derek Tran is now well-positioned to flip this seat from red to blue. His momentum is real, his message is resonating, and as voters continue to turn away from Steel’s extremism and scandals, Tran is on the verge of delivering a major victory for Democrats and helping take back the House in November.

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Army Veteran Derek Tran is a DCCC Red To Blue candidate running in California’s 45th Congressional District which encompasses portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country. President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.

Use of Derek Tran's military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.