RATINGS CHANGE: Cook Report Shifts CA-45 To Derek Tran

Sep

2024

PRESS RELEASE

RATINGS CHANGE: Cook Report Shifts CA-45 To Derek Tran

Famed Cook Political Report Changes Rating In Battleground District to Toss Up

Garden Grove, CA — Today, election experts at the Cook Political Report have changed their rating from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, confirming Derek Tran's surging momentum and reflecting the escalating corruption scandals tarnishing Steel's campaign. The news follows the experts at Inside Elections also adjusting their rating to show a more competitive contest. Following three public polls showing the corrupt Congresswoman Michelle Steel in a dead heat with Tran and the FBI Raid on Steel’s former colleague and longtime political ally Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, it’s clear that the vulnerable incumbent is in more trouble than ever.

From Cook Political Report:

Democrats now believe they have a strong nominee in Derek Tran, a Vietnamese-American attorney who could make inroads with typically Republican-leaning voters in Little Saigon. Though Tran is a first-time candidate, he managed to outraise Steel in the second quarter, $1.3 million to $1.1 million, after narrowly advancing from the top-two primary. And though polling earlier this year showed Trump winning this district, both parties now have polling that shows Harris in the lead and Tran within striking distance of Steel. We’re moving this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

Picture of Tweet showing eight House races whose Cook ratings have changed

To Read The Full Analysis Click Here

As a reminder, Michelle Steel’s personal involvement in Orange County corruption scandals runs deep, stemming back to her tenure on the Orange County Board of Supervisors alongside Andrew Do:

Steel’s former collegue and endorser, Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do has been called to resign after the FBI raided the home of Do’s daughter— reportedly linked to the controversial misallocation of millions of dollars in county funds to a nonprofit organization she led.
Steel has a long, shady history of greenlighting sweetheart deals on land sales and airport contracts for private jet use beneficial to her wealthy campaign donors.
In 2015, Steel opposed creating an Orange County campaign finance and ethics commission, calling the effort a “symbolic gesture,” and was the sole vote against putting the initiative on a ballot.
In 2018, Steel voted to remove any independent oversight of Orange County Supervisors’ actions, county finances, and the practices of the Sheriff’s Department and District Attorney’s Office.
In 2020, while she was running for Congress and still serving on the OC Board of Supervisors, Steel was “called out” for accepting campaign contributions from a private jet company that was bidding for a long-term contract at John Wayne Airport.
In 2022, the Orange County Grand Jury found that Michelle Steel tried to direct the sale of public land to a wealthy campaign donor, and detailed her damning involvement in the effort.
In Congress, Steel voted against legislation to help America compete with Chinese manufacturing – while her husband notoriously toured known Chinese Communist Party agents around an invitation-only meeting with Republican leaders.

The Cook Political Report is a nonpartisan, independent analysis outlet that provides expert insights and ratings on U.S. elections. Known for its accuracy and thorough analysis, the Cook Political Report tracks races across the country, offering detailed forecasts on the likelihood of outcomes in presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial contests. Its widely respected ratings are considered a key benchmark in assessing the competitiveness of races and are relied upon by political insiders, media outlets, and campaign strategists alike.

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Army Veteran Derek Tran is a DCCC Red To Blue candidate running in California’s 45th Congressional District which encompasses portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country. President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.

Use of Derek Tran's military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.