New Polling: Derek Tran Leads MAGA Michelle Steel

Oct

2024

PRESS RELEASE

New Polling: Derek Tran Leads MAGA Michelle Steel

Latest Poll Finds Tran Surging Ahead as Steel Campaign Teeters Amidst Corruption Scandals

Garden Grove, CA - A new poll released yesterday by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) shows U.S. Army Veteran, Derek Tran surging past Republican Congresswoman Michelle Steel in the race for California’s 45th Congressional District. Conducted between October 13th and 15th among likely voters, the poll gives Tran a 48% to 45% lead, showing him leading the race outright, despite Michelle Steel's lies and massive outside spending from Steel’s far-right, MAGA allies.

Bar graphs showing Derek Tran leading Steel 48-45 across the board and especially in AAPI, Vietnamese, and Latino groups

Derek Tran leads Michelle Steel across multiple demographics

Tran’s lead is attributable in part to his significant leads with the crucial AAPI, Vietnamese, and Latino voting blocs, (+23), (+26), and (+5) respectively. Tran also has a net favorable rating of +7 among voters (37%/30%), while Michelle Steel sits at a net negative rating of -2 (41%/43%) reflecting her terrible reputation in the district she has represented for four years.

Last month, a poll from Tulchin Research and an independent USC poll found Tran winning by identical 47-45 margins, confirming his campaign's growing momentum as voters respond to his compelling story and vision for the district. With Steel’s favorability ratings dropping due to concerns over her extreme efforts to ban abortion nationwide, her connection to indicted former Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, and five major political forecasters– Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, ABC/538, FOX News, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball– moving this race in Tran’s favor, it's clear that Tran has the momentum and is well-positioned to flip this critical seat in November.

Read The Polling Memo Here

This poll by Normington, Petts and Associates confirms what political insiders have been discovering: Tran, an Army veteran, workers’ rights attorney, and small business owner, is not just closing the gap—he’s pulling ahead, fueled by a coalition that cuts across key voter blocs in this battleground district. Most notably, Tran is leading Steel among both Latino and Vietnamese voters, groups essential to winning in this diverse district that boasts the largest Vietnamese community in the country. Voters are increasingly rallying behind Tran’s compelling personal story and forward-looking agenda.

Meanwhile, Michelle Steel’s image has taken a significant hit as voters become more aware of her extreme anti-abortion stance, alignment with the most far-right elements of her party, and her deep ties to corruption scandals, including her long-standing support for indicted and disgraced former Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do.

With his ability to unite a diverse electorate and build a broad coalition, Derek Tran is now well-positioned to flip this seat from red to blue. His momentum is real, his message is resonating, and as voters continue to turn away from Steel’s extremism and scandals, Tran is on the verge of delivering a major victory for Democrats and helping take back the House in November.

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Army Veteran Derek Tran is a DCCC Red To Blue candidate running in California’s 45th Congressional District which encompasses portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country. President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.

Use of Derek Tran's military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.

Contact: press@derektranforcongress.com