RATINGS CHANGE: Sabato's Crystal Ball Shifts Ratings Toward Tran in CA-45

Sep

2024

PRESS RELEASE

RATINGS CHANGE: Sabato's Crystal Ball Shifts Ratings Toward Tran in CA-45

Sabato joins Cook Political Report Calling Battleground District a ‘Toss Up’

Garden Grove, CA — Today, election experts at Sabato's Crystal Ball have changed their rating from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, confirming Derek Tran's surging momentum and reflecting the escalating corruption scandals tarnishing Steel's campaign. The news follows the experts at Inside Elections also adjusting their rating to show a more competitive contest. Following three public polls showing the corrupt Congresswoman Michelle Steel in a dead heat with Tran and the FBI Raid on Steel’s former colleague and longtime political ally Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, it’s clear that the vulnerable incumbent is in more trouble than ever.

From Sabato's Crystal Ball:

“Moving the opposite way, from Leans Republican to Toss-up, is Rep. Michelle Steel (R, CA-45), who represents a very diverse, Biden +6 district in Orange County with a significant Vietnamese population. This voting bloc leans right, although Steel’s opponent, Derek Tran (D), is Vietnamese-American himself, which Democrats argue could be helpful in a close race… Democrats have released a few internal polls over the past few months showing the race roughly tied… our sense is that this one is competitive enough to merit being a Toss-up. The presidential trajectory in this race will matter, as CA-45 was clearly bluer in 2016 (Hillary Clinton would have carried it by 13 points).”

Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings shift to Toss-up for Derek Tran

To Read The Full Analysis Click Here

Sabato's Crystal Ball is a nonpartisan political analysis and forecasting outlet run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Known for its expert predictions and in-depth analysis, Sabato's Crystal Ball provides insights on U.S. elections at all levels, including presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial races. The outlet offers detailed ratings on the competitiveness of races, which are widely regarded as a trusted resource by political insiders, media outlets, and strategists. Sabato's Crystal Ball is respected for its accuracy and its ability to identify key trends shaping the political landscape.

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Army Veteran Derek Tran is a DCCC Red To Blue candidate running in California’s 45th Congressional District which encompasses portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country. President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.

Use of Derek Tran's military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.